Verify the slate
Confirm the week and decision-snapshot time at the top. If the timestamp is stale, wait for the next refresh.
DraftKings Classic · Sunday Main · Week 4
Salary froze.
Information didn’t.
A point-in-time decision desk built around opportunity change, expected-versus-actual regression, and the news that arrived after DraftKings priced the slate.
LIVE RESEARCH BOARD — check the update timestamp before using. Field attention is a proxy, not projected ownership. Current lineup exclusions are disclosed in the data manifest.
Salary rows frozen629
Viable modeled143
Benchmark matches115
Optimal simulations300
Lineup salary cap$50K
01 / QUICK START · V1.1
How to use Sports Edge
Start with freshness, choose a construction, then confirm every player before lock. The board is a decision tool—not an automatic entry button.
Choose your build
Balanced favors median strength. Leverage accepts more variance. Staleness emphasizes late information.
Read the Edge Tape
Mispricing measures our disagreement with salary. Freshness tracks post-price information. Leverage weighs upside against field attention.
Work the player board
Filter by position, search a player or team, and switch the ranking lens. Tap column headers for a direct sort.
Run the lock check
Confirm DK availability, injury status, weather, and excluded games. Never upload a draft without a final inactive check.
Recommended flow: snapshot → lineup tab → Edge Tape → player pivots → weather/status → final DK confirmation.
02 / THE EDGE TAPE
Where the slate moved
These are not simply the highest projections. They are the players whose price, opportunity, and field treatment create the strongest model disagreement.
03 / CONSTRUCTIONS
Three tournament drafts
Each lineup is salary-valid, uses a QB stack, stays below the cap, and shares no more than six players with the other builds. Drafts—not upload instructions.
04 / PLAYER BOARD
Mispricing ≠ leverage
Sort and filter the complete viable pool. A red score marks pricing disagreement; green tracks post-price information change.
| Player | Salary | Proj | P95 | xFP gap | Opportunity | Freshness | Mispricing | Leverage | Status |
|---|
No players match these filters.
05 / GAME CONDITIONS
Weather that can matter
National Weather Service hourly forecasts nearest kickoff. Retractable-roof status must still be confirmed.
06 / MODEL RECEIPT
What V1.1 actually knows
Transparent enough to backtest. Conservative enough not to pretend we have data we do not.
PLAYER OUTCOME DISTRIBUTION
+ opportunity acceleration
+ expected-vs-actual regression
+ injury redistribution
+ post-price information
− salary cost
= MISPRICING
MISPRICING + ceiling + simulated optimal rate − field-attention proxy = TOURNAMENT LEVERAGE
+ opportunity acceleration
+ expected-vs-actual regression
+ injury redistribution
+ post-price information
− salary cost
= MISPRICING
MISPRICING + ceiling + simulated optimal rate − field-attention proxy = TOURNAMENT LEVERAGE
Scoring and roster constraints follow DraftKings NFL Classic rules.[1] Completed-week statistics and snap counts use nflverse.[2] The benchmark projection/market snapshot is from Splash Play Podcast.[3] Injury status is cross-checked against NFL reporting.[4] Weather comes from the NWS API.[5]
07 / PROVENANCE
Sources & downloads
- DraftKings NFL Classic Rules
- nflverse data repository
- Splash Play Podcast — current-week DFS projections
- NFL injury reports
- National Weather Service API
Download player board CSV · Download lineup drafts JSON · Download data manifest